Bitcoin’s upcoming fourth block reward halving, expected around April 24, 2024, has attracted attention from supporters and market observers who anticipate a price surge leading up to the event. Plan B, an anonymous market analyst, predicts that the price of bitcoin could reach a range of $40,000 to $50,000 before the next block reward halving.
Amidst Market Uncertainties, Plan B Estimates Bitcoin Could Surpass $40K Before Fourth Halving
Two promising factors have sparked discussions in recent circles: the potential approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. and the imminent block reward halving. As the halving draws closer, predicted to occur in approximately nine months, near April 24, 2024, bitcoin miners’ revenues are bound to be halved. Analysts at JPMorgan anticipate financial difficulties for bitcoin (BTC) miners if the price of the cryptocurrency and transaction costs fail to increase by that date.
JPMorgan’s senior analyst, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, explained in a note to clients, “While bitcoin halving is seen as having a positive effect on the bitcoin price given the production cost acted historically as a floor, it poses a challenge for bitcoin miners.”
On July 16, 2023, an anonymous market analyst known as Plan B, famous for creating the stock-to-flow (S2F) price model, released a video suggesting that bitcoin’s value could potentially reach a range of $40,000 to $50,000 by the upcoming halving. Plan B faced criticism in 2022 when his S2F forecasts fell short. However, in his latest video, he utilized the 200-week moving average as a tool to predict future price trends.
Explaining his methodology in the video, Plan B stated, “The 200-week moving average increases currently at about $500 [per month], so nine times $500 will be $4,500. Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average right now is a little under $28,000, so $28,000 plus $4,000 is well [a] $32,000 dollars (200-week) moving average at the halving approximately.”
The anonymous analyst further added:
“And bitcoin would be above that right, and usually it would be like 50% above that, which would indicate a range of Bitcoin at the halving between $40,000 and $50,000.”
On July 17, 2023, Plan B raised curiosity by launching a survey asking whether bitcoin could reach a new all-time low (ATL, currently $15.5K) and/or a new all-time high (ATH, currently $69K) during this halving cycle before April 2024. The poll has garnered over 20,000 responses at the time of writing, with 37.9% of participants predicting neither a new ATL nor a new ATH prior to April 2024.
In comparison, Plan B’s price forecast before the halving appears conservative. For instance, Matrixport predicts a halving price of $63,160, citing Blackrock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund filing and a notable increase in institutional interest.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Bitcoin price surge
What is the significance of Bitcoin’s halving?
Bitcoin’s halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, reducing the block reward received by miners in half. It is significant because it decreases the rate at which new bitcoins are created, resulting in a more limited supply. This has historically led to an increase in the price of Bitcoin due to the reduced supply and increased scarcity.
Who is Plan B and what is the stock-to-flow model?
Plan B is an anonymous market analyst known for creating the stock-to-flow (S2F) model. This model measures the scarcity of an asset by comparing its available stock (existing supply) with its flow (newly produced supply). Plan B utilizes this model to make price predictions for Bitcoin based on its scarcity and historical patterns.
What are the forecasts made by Plan B for Bitcoin’s price before the halving?
Plan B predicts that Bitcoin’s price could reach a range of $40,000 to $50,000 before the next halving event. He bases this forecast on the 200-week moving average and its historical relationship to Bitcoin’s price trends.
What are the concerns raised by JPMorgan regarding the halving?
JPMorgan’s analysts have expressed concerns about the upcoming halving. They suggest that if Bitcoin’s price and transaction costs fail to increase by the time of the halving, it could pose financial challenges for Bitcoin miners. The reduction in block rewards combined with stagnant prices could impact their revenues.
How do other forecasts compare to Plan B’s predictions?
Other forecasts, such as the one by Matrixport, anticipate a more significant price surge. Matrixport predicts a halving price of $63,160, driven by factors such as the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. and increased institutional interest. These forecasts indicate a broader range of perspectives on Bitcoin’s price before the halving.
More about Bitcoin price surge
- Bitcoin Halving: What You Need to Know
- Plan B Twitter Profile
- Stock-to-Flow Model
- JPMorgan Analysts’ Note on Bitcoin Halving
- Matrixport Forecast for Bitcoin Halving
- Potential Approval of Bitcoin ETF