In the early stages of August 2023, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, experts in the field of ETFs at Bloomberg, projected a 65% likelihood of a spot bitcoin ETF receiving approval. However, as August approaches its end and in light of a legal victory for Grayscale in its dispute against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the duo has revised their initial forecast, now estimating the probability at 75%.
Critical Decision from SEC Awaits Seven Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Pending any unforeseen delays, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is standing at the crossroads of either endorsing or rejecting seven separate propositions for a spot bitcoin ETF. Renowned entities such as Blackrock, Wisdomtree, Valkyrie, Fidelity, Vaneck, Bitwise, and Invesco have submitted these proposals. Balchunas, the esteemed senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, conveyed that he and Seyffart have fine-tuned their projections from their prior assessment.
The senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas, shared an image on the subject.
“James Seyffart and I are revising our projections to reflect a 75% likelihood of spot bitcoin ETFs being launched this year (increasing to 95% by the conclusion of 2024),” Balchunas conveyed through the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter). He continued, “Although we had already factored in the Grayscale victory when predicting a 65% probability, the unanimous and unequivocal nature of the ruling surpassed our expectations and has limited the SEC’s room for maneuvering, as stated by Elliott Z. Stein.” The ETF analyst added:
Beyond the legal setback, there also exists a public relations setback (which carries significance as it shapes narratives and influences perspectives). This development has garnered extensive coverage across mainstream media outlets, including but not limited to The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, AP, and ABC. We believe that the combined impact of legal and public relations setbacks will make denying the proposal politically unfeasible.
The viewpoints of these ETF experts follow a decision by a court in D.C., which ruled in favor of Grayscale, the largest crypto asset manager, in its legal dispute with the SEC’s refusal to transition GBTC into a spot bitcoin ETF. Balchunas further suggested that, given this recent ruling, he and Seyffart would not be surprised if the SEC chooses to delay their decision. However, he opined that the precise timing might be less crucial; it is more conceivable that one day, it will be revealed that the SEC has yielded and a launch is on the horizon.
What are your thoughts on the decision of the two ETF analysts to raise the likelihood of a spot bitcoin ETF receiving approval from the SEC? We invite you to share your insights and viewpoints on this matter in the comments section below.