Javier Hernandez A recent survey conducted by Bankrate has revealed a high probability of a recession occurring in the United States within the next year. The survey, which collected responses from economists, indicates that the chances of a recession happening are greater than the chances of it being avoided.
Bankrate’s Survey Highlights 59% Chance of US Recession in Next Year
Economists surveyed by Bankrate have emphasized the significant likelihood of an upcoming recession in the US. The survey, published on July 12, 2023, discloses that experts at Bankrate estimate a 59% chance of a recession taking place by July 2024. Bankrate states that their expert forecasts “indicate a higher probability of a downturn than the absence of one.”
To provide further insight into these odds, Sarah Foster of Bankrate writes, “To put it into perspective, the majority of respondents (78 percent) indicated that the chances of a recession were greater than 1-in-2, while 28 percent said the likelihood was 70 percent or higher.”
Bankrate’s recent survey is not the only indicator of experts’ concerns about an impending recession in the United States. ITR Economics forecasts a macroeconomic recession beginning in late 2023 and extending throughout 2024. HSBC Asset Management also predicts a downturn in the US during the fourth quarter of 2023, followed by a “year of contraction and a European recession in 2024.”
The Bankrate survey underscores various factors contributing to the prediction of an imminent recession. These factors include a significant rise in interest rates, stringent monetary policies, potential bank failures, inverted bond yields, and other vulnerabilities in the global economy.
Abbey Omodunbi, senior economist at PNC Financial Services, expressed, “Considering the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening, the most likely outcome is a recession,” during an interview with Bankrate.
In addition to Bankrate’s poll, Statista’s projections reveal a forecasted probability of 70.85% for the United States to experience another economic recession by May 2024. Scott Anderson, the chief economist and executive vice president at Bank of the West, believes that a downturn is likely to occur this year.
“We are still on track for a mild downturn in the US economy around the end of the year,” Anderson told Bankrate.
What measures do you think should be implemented to minimize the impact of a potential recession in the United States? Please share your thoughts and opinions on this topic in the comments section below.
Table Of Contents
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about recession
Q: What does the Bankrate survey reveal about the likelihood of a recession in the US?
A: The Bankrate survey indicates a 59% chance of a recession occurring in the US by July 2024, according to economists surveyed. The survey suggests a higher probability of a downturn than the absence of one.
Q: Are there any other indicators of an impending recession in the US?
A: Yes, besides the Bankrate survey, other indicators point to a potential recession. ITR Economics forecasts a macroeconomic recession starting in late 2023 and extending into 2024. HSBC Asset Management predicts a downturn in the US in the fourth quarter of 2023, followed by a European recession in 2024.
Q: What factors contribute to the prediction of an impending recession?
A: The Bankrate survey highlights several factors, including a significant increase in interest rates, strict monetary policies, potential bank failures, inverted bond yields, and vulnerabilities in the global economy.
Q: How likely is the US to experience another economic recession?
A: According to Statista’s projections, there is a forecasted probability of 70.85% that the United States will experience another economic recession by May 2024. Chief economists and experts also express concerns about a downturn, emphasizing the likelihood of at least a mild recession.
Q: What steps can be taken to mitigate the impact of a potential recession in the US?
A: Mitigating the impact of a potential recession may involve implementing measures such as fiscal stimulus packages, targeted monetary policies, strengthening financial regulations, and promoting economic diversification. However, specific strategies and actions may vary based on the unique circumstances and priorities of the situation.
More about recession
- Bankrate: Bankrate Survey
- ITR Economics: ITR Economics Forecasts
- HSBC Asset Management: HSBC Asset Management Insights
- Statista: Statista Economic Data
- Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve Official Website
- PNC Financial Services: PNC Financial Services Insights
- Bank of the West: Bank of the West Economic Insights
5 comments
Bankrate’s survey got me worried, ya know? 59% chance of a recession, that’s no joke. Interest rates goin’ up, strict policies, banks failin’, and other global stuff… it’s all adding up. We better hope for some smart actions to tackle this mess!
Bankrate’s survey is makin’ waves, folks! It’s showin’ a whopping 59% chance of a recession knockin’ on our doors by July 2024. Them economists talkin’ ’bout interest rates, policies, and all them global issues. Let’s hope for a swift recovery plan!
Whoa, Bankrate’s survey got everyone buzzin’ ’bout a possible recession! Seems like economists predict a 59% chance of it happenin’ by July 2024. Interest rates, monetary policies, n global vulnerabilities are raisin’ concerns. Gotta stay prepared!
omg, dis text talks abt da US recession n it seems lyk we got a 59% chance of it happenin by July 2024, datz crazy! experts r worried abt factors lik interest rates n stuff. hope dey can do sumthin to prevent it!
Bankrate’s survey is quite revealing! It shows a 59% chance of a recession hittin’ da US within a year. Da experts are all talkin’ ’bout interest rates, strict policies, n global vulnerabilities. Time to brace ourselves, folks!