Expert Asserts Chinese Yuan Unlikely to Surpass US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency

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A seasoned global macro strategist has provided insight into the potential of the Chinese yuan to replace the U.S. dollar as the predominant global reserve currency. The strategist emphasized that despite ongoing efforts by nations like Russia, China, and other BRICS members to explore alternatives to the dollar, the Chinese yuan’s ascendancy remains unlikely.

In a detailed analysis, Skylar Montgomery, a senior global macro strategist at Globaldata TS Lombard, an independent research organization specializing in global macro and strategy, conveyed that the current status of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency endows the United States with substantial political, economic, and market sway. She noted, however, that the U.S. government has employed the dollar as a political instrument, evident in its use of economic measures such as freezing Russia’s currency reserves in response to the Ukrainian invasion. Montgomery highlighted the strategic maneuvering, stating:

“The utilization of the dollar as a geopolitical tool has contributed to the inclination of Russia, China, and other BRICS nations to pursue alternatives to the dollar.”

The recent summit of BRICS countries concluded with the leaders of the economic alliance concurring on the promotion of local currencies for international trade, as opposed to relying exclusively on the U.S. dollar. Acknowledging the global trend of de-dollarization and the reduction of the U.S. dollar’s share in global currency reserves from 72% in 2000 to its current standing at 59%, Montgomery elucidated, “The marginal decline of less than 1% per annum is a gradual progression, and the dollar continues to dominate currency reserves. Additionally, the 13% decrease has had an almost even impact on the euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan, and Australian dollar.”

Montgomery argued that the U.S. dollar will persist as the dominant global currency due to the absence of a clear alternative, including the Chinese yuan, which has not emerged as a distinct contender to the USD. She reasoned that factors such as China’s closed capital account, the reluctance to maintain a current account deficit, unpredictable government intervention, and managed currency dynamics have limited the international utilization of the yuan.

Furthermore, Dario Perkins, the managing director of global macro at Globaldata TS Lombard, expounded upon the requisites for a reserve currency, highlighting the necessity for a nation to be willing to sustain substantial and prolonged current account deficits to meet the global currency demand. Perkins emphasized, “The United States possesses formidable network effects, encompassing deep capital markets, essential lender-of-last-resort functions, and the facilitation of financial services worldwide. Presently, only the U.S. is equipped to fulfill this role.”

Several other experts share the view that the Chinese yuan does not pose a significant threat to the U.S. dollar. Notable economist Benn Steil, the director of International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, concurs, and market analyst Zain Vawda from Dailyfx recently opined that the fluctuating nature of the Chinese yuan complicates the process of de-dollarization.

In light of these perspectives, the question arises: Could the Chinese yuan ultimately supplant the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency? Your insights are welcomed in the comments section below.

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• Skylar Montgomery – Senior Global Macro Strategist at Globaldata TS Lombard
• BRICS Summit – Annual summit of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa
• Dario Perkins – Managing Director of Global Macro at Globaldata TS Lombard
• Benn Steil – Director of International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations
• Zain Vawda – Market Analyst at Dailyfx