Giovanni Russo Analysts Predict 65% Chance of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval, Citing Influence from Blackrock
Amid a series of filings and amendments related to spot Bitcoin ETFs, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now tasked with reviewing several pending applications. Notably, Blackrock, the largest global asset manager in terms of assets under management (AUM), submitted its spot Bitcoin ETF application in June. Other participants swiftly followed suit. As of August 2, 2023, Bloomberg ETF experts, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, have publicly shared their opinions on the potential SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Seyffart announced on social media platform X that “Eric Balchunas and I have formally upped our prediction for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF to 65%, a significant jump from the 50% we estimated just a few weeks ago, and a monumental rise from the mere 1% we foresaw a few months prior.” The joint statement from Seyffart and Balchunas further detailed:
“We believe there’s now a 65% likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF launch within the year, thanks to a string of recent events: Gary Gensler’s diminishing role at the SEC, the commission’s apparent approval of Coinbase’s Bitcoin exchange, Grayscale’s effort to reduce competing filings, and the SEC’s defeat in a similar case against Grayscale. Lastly, the influence exerted by Blackrock and perhaps Democrats might make it politically impractical for Gensler to reject these ETF applications.”
Seyffart clarified that their team’s estimation is speculative concerning the timing of the Grayscale case, but they foresee the simplest route being a blanket approval for all eight applicants, including Grayscale, once the SEC’s denial is overturned by the courts. Seyffart argues that the key to this would be Grayscale’s victory over the SEC in federal court, potentially leading to a flurry of SEC approvals in Q4. However, this scenario hinges heavily on “how much Gensler is willing to resist,” Seyffart explains.
We invite your thoughts on the ETF analysts’ increased likelihood of the SEC green-lighting a spot Bitcoin ETF. Please share your views on this topic in the comments section below.
Table Of Contents
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
What are the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval according to Bloomberg ETF analysts?
According to Bloomberg ETF analysts, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. have risen to 65%.
Who do the analysts believe could influence the SEC’s decision on the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF?
The analysts believe that pressure from Blackrock and possibly Democrats could compel the SEC to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Who is Blackrock?
Blackrock is the world’s largest asset manager by assets under management (AUM).
What could be the potential turning point for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, according to analyst James Seyffart?
James Seyffart argues that a key factor could be a legal victory by Grayscale over the SEC in federal court. This could potentially pave the way for a surge of SEC approvals in the fourth quarter.
Who is Gary Gensler?
Gary Gensler is the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The analysts mentioned his role in their assessment of the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
More about Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
- Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)
- Spot Bitcoin ETF
- Blackrock
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
- Gary Gensler
- Grayscale
- Coinbase
5 comments
Seyffart and Balchunas are spot on. They’ve got their finger on the pulse. the grayscale case is definatly the lynchpin.
Always knew Blackrock had some sway, but didnt know they could tip the balance for a Bitcoin ETF, that’s wild!
who would’ve thought Democrats might be swing factor for bitcoin etf! bet Gensler’s feeling the heat now!
Wow! 65% odds, that’s a massive increase from a few weeks ago. never thought Blackrock would be such a game changer in this, interesting times…
if grayscale win their case, we might be on the brink of something big for crypto. here’s hoping!