Alexander Savenkov Following an order from Kevin McCarthy, the Speaker of the House for the Republican Party, to initiate an impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden, participants on the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket have begun speculating on the likelihood of the President’s impeachment by two specific timeframes: September 30, 2023, and December 31, 2023.
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Limited Chances Foreseen for Biden’s Impeachment According to Polymarket Wagers
Both in traditional sportsbooks and in decentralized predictive markets, individuals are staking bets on the probability of President Joe Biden facing impeachment. The move to initiate an impeachment inquiry was made by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on September 12, 2023. The allegations, presented by McCarthy and other members of the GOP in the House, suggest that President Biden may have deliberately misled the American public regarding his son Hunter Biden’s foreign business activities. The accusations levelled against Biden include purported “abuse of power, corruption, and obstruction.”
Kevin McCarthy announced, “I am instructing our House committees to commence a formal impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden.” He added, “In recent months, House Republicans have unearthed substantive and credible accusations that pertain to President Biden’s conduct, pointing to a pattern of corruption.”
One specific allegation posits that Biden might have financially benefitted from a Ukrainian energy company, Burisma, while serving as Vice President under the Obama administration. Hunter Biden, the President’s son, had considerable affiliations with Burisma at the time. James Comer, the Chairman of the House Oversight Committee, added further fuel to the fire in March 2023 by declaring that State Energy HK Limited, which has ties to the Chinese Communist Party-affiliated CEFC China Energy, transferred $3 million to an associate of the Biden family.
In light of McCarthy’s call for an inquiry into President Biden, public conjecture on the matter has intensified. According to U.S. law, a sitting president can be impeached for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors,” although no American president has ever been removed from office due to impeachment proceedings. Nonetheless, speculation regarding Biden’s possible impeachment is rife, both in conventional betting arenas and decentralized platforms like Polymarket.
A particular wager on Polymarket zeroes in on the question of whether Biden will face impeachment by either September 30, 2023, or December 31, 2023. As per the current odds, the likelihood of impeachment occurring by September 30 is exceedingly minimal, with a 99.4% probability against it. For the later date, the odds are similarly long, at 96% against. Polymarket’s official page on the matter clarifies, “A trial, conviction by the Senate, or removal from office are not prerequisites for this market to resolve as ‘Yes’.”
As of September 17, 2023, these are the Polymarket betting odds.
Prediction markets and bookmakers often serve as indicators of public sentiment regarding upcoming developments. For instance, odds were also slim on February 1, 2023, according to presidentialelectionodds.net. The site then posted odds of -390 against and +270 in favor of Biden’s impeachment by June 30, 2023. Data from Gambling.com as of September 11, 2023, suggests that Biden has a 36.4% chance of winning the next presidential election, with odds set at 7/4.
In late August, subsequent to the initial Republican debate, Polymarket bettors speculated that former President Donald Trump would clinch the Republican nomination. That specific bet on Polymarket is still active, and Trump remains the front-runner among the Republican candidates.
What are your perspectives on the predictive markets that focus on the potential impeachment of Biden? Kindly share your insights and viewpoints on this matter in the comments section below.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Biden’s possible impeachment
What is the primary focus of the article?
The article primarily focuses on the increased betting activity on the blockchain-based prediction market, Polymarket, concerning the possibility of President Joe Biden’s impeachment. It delves into the odds and public sentiment surrounding the issue and highlights the key allegations and political events leading to the speculation.
Who initiated the impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden?
The Speaker of the House for the Republican Party, Kevin McCarthy, initiated the impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden on September 12, 2023.
What are the specific allegations against President Joe Biden?
President Joe Biden is accused of potentially misleading the American public about his son Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings. The charges levelled against him include purported “abuse of power, corruption, and obstruction.”
What are the specific dates for which bets are being placed on Biden’s impeachment?
Bets are being placed on whether President Biden will be impeached by two specific dates: September 30, 2023, and December 31, 2023.
What is the current likelihood of Biden’s impeachment according to Polymarket?
According to the odds on Polymarket, the likelihood of President Biden being impeached by September 30, 2023, is very low, with a 99.4% chance against it. For December 31, 2023, the probability stands at 96% against.
How do prediction markets like Polymarket reflect public opinion?
Prediction markets and bookmakers often serve as indicators of public sentiment regarding upcoming events. They offer real-time data through the odds they set, which can provide insights into how the public perceives the likelihood of a particular event occurring.
What are the betting statistics for Biden’s chances in the next presidential election?
As of September 11, 2023, according to Gambling.com, President Biden has a 36.4% chance of winning the next presidential election, with odds set at 7/4.
Have any U.S. presidents ever been removed due to impeachment?
No U.S. president has ever been removed from office due to impeachment proceedings, although some have been impeached by the House of Representatives. Impeachment does not equate to removal from office; it is essentially a formal charge that leads to a trial in the Senate.
More about Biden’s possible impeachment
- Polymarket Official Website
- U.S. House of Representatives Impeachment Process
- Prediction and Betting Markets Overview
- The Allegations Against Hunter Biden Explained
- Kevin McCarthy’s Official Statement on Biden Inquiry
- Public Opinion on Presidential Impeachment
- U.S. Impeachment History
- Gambling.com’s Presidential Election Odds
8 comments
Never knew people take these betting odds so seriously. It’s all a gamble, at the end of the day, ain’t it?
Detailed piece. Liked how you captured the nuances of the betting market along side political ramifications. Keep it up.
The fact that blockchain-based platforms like Polymarket are now part of mainstream political speculation just shows how far crypto has come. The future is here, people!
McCarthy’s pushing hard on this, huh. Impeachment is a lengthy process, its more complicated than just odds on a betting platform.
So when is it happening, is it gonna happen at all? Been hearing about this impeachment stuff for a while now but nothings concrete.
umm I gotta say, betting on someone’s impeachment seems a little too much? But its 2023, so who’s surprised.
A bit unsettling that we’re talking about something as serious as impeachment in the context of betting odds. But, well written article, nonetheless.
Wow, this is really heating up. Who would’ve thought we’d be talking about another impeachment so soon? Politics is a wild game for sure.